Deforestation projections imply range-wide population decline for critically endangered Bornean orangutan

摘要

Assesing where wildlife populations are at risk from future habitat loss is particularly important forlanduse planning and avoiding biodiversity declines. Combining projections of future deforestation withspecies density information provides an improved way to anticipate such declines. Using the criticallyendangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) as a case study we applied a spatio-temporally explicitdeforestation model to forest loss data from 2001 to 2017 and projected future impacts on orangutansto the 2030s. Our projections point to continued deforestation across the island, amounting to a potential loss of forest habitat for 26,200 orangutans. Populations currently persisting in forests gazetted forindustrial timber and oil palm concessions, or unprotected forests outside of concessions, were projectedto experience the worst losses within the next 15 years, amounting to 15,400 individuals. Our analysis areas and efforts to prevent the conversion of logged forests for the survival of highly vulnerable wildlife. The modeling framework could be expanded to other species with available density or occurrence data. Our findings highlight that species conservation should not only act on the current information, but alsoanticipate future changes to be effective.