Probability risk assessment of landslides: A case study at Finneidfjord

摘要

Probabilistic risk assessments are increasingly being considered the most appropriate framework for engineers to systematically base decisions on hazard mitigation issues. This paper aims to show the advantages of a quantitative risk assessment by application to a historical case study. The generalized integrated risk assessment framework has been applied retrospectively to a submarine landslide that occurred in 1996 near the village of Finneidfjord in northern Norway. Over 1 million cubic metres of predominantly quick clay was displaced. Even though it was triggered underwater on the embankment of the Sorfjord, the retrogressive nature of the slide resulted in it encroaching 100-150 m inland. The triggering mechanism is believed to have been the placement of fill, from a nearby tunnelling project, on the foreshore of the embankment. This paper is a retrospective quantitative evaluation of the risk to the neighbouring houses, the persons in those houses, and the persons in open spaces caused by the placement of increasing levels of embankment fill. A probabilistic approach, making use of second-moment modelling and first-order second-moment approximation is adopted. It aims to demonstrate the advantages of this type of risk assessment in understanding complex and integrated hazards, particularly those in populated environments.