Linear decision rule in reservoir management and design: 4. A rule that minimizes output variance

摘要

A linear decision rule (LDR) in reservoir management and design is reviewed and transformed. A generalized formulation of a new LDR is presented, and the necessary steps to implement it are carried out for a particular form of the new rule. The proposed rule permits further minimization of expected losses arising from deviations of releases from prespecified target levels. The use of the rule also makes possible a larger minimum commitment of water. The problem is solved for historical data from the Gunpowder River in Maryland under both the previous and the new form of the LDR. Results obtained are compared for the two cases.