Abstract Increasing ice flux from glaciers retreating over deepening (retrograde) bed topography has been implicated in the recent acceleration of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We show in observations that some glaciers have remained at peaks in bed topography without retreating despite enduring significant changes in climate. Observations also indicate that some glaciers which persist at bed peaks undergo sudden retreat years or decades after the onset of local ocean or atmospheric warming. Using model simulations, we show that persistence of a glacier at a bed peak is caused by ice slowing as it flows up a reverse-sloping bed to the peak. Persistence at bed peaks may lead to two very different future behaviors for a glacier: one where it persists at a bed peak indefinitely, and another where it retreats from the bed peak after potentially long delays following climate forcing. However, it is nearly impossible to distinguish which of these two future behaviors will occur from current observations. We conclude that inferring glacier stability from observations of persistence obscures our true commitment to future sea-level rise under climate change. We recommend that further research is needed on seemingly stable glaciers to determine their likely future.
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