Regional variation in the drivers of China's residential electricity consumption (REC) and policy orientation

摘要

Electricity consumption is crucial for decarbonizing transformation from coal, biomass to clean energy in the residential sector. REC has become the largest contributor to China's electricity consumption growth. However, we have encountered challenges in assessing the effectiveness of relevant energy policies and know little about the variability of macro factors. Consequently, by employing a decomposition analytical framework at different levels (nation, region, and province), we decompose and quantify the driving forces of REC and demonstrate the dominant determinants of REC, the differentiation of these factors across areas, and between urban and rural. The key findings show that urbanization positively affects the urban REC but negatively impacts the rural REC. Increasing per capita consumption expenditure in rural areas has a sustained promoting effect on REC, and the influence degree is higher than that in urban areas. The impact of the coal substitution factor on electricity in inland developing regions is much higher than that in developed coastal areas. However, the effect of the coal substitution factor on electricity in less developed rural areas is much higher than that in urban. These findings provide unique insights into the mechanism and dominant driving forces of REC growth and underscore the equality between urban and rural for a sustainable green energy consumption system.