Effects of Vehicle Restriction Policies on Urban Travel Demand Change from a Built Environment Perspective

摘要

License plate restriction (LPR) policy presents the most straightforward way to reduce road traffic and emissions worldwide. However, in practice, it has aroused great controversy. This policy broke the original structure of the urban transportation mode, which needed some matching strategies to adapt to this change. Investigating this travel demand change is a challenging task because it is greatly influenced by features of the local built environment. Fourteen variables from four dimensions, location, land-use diversity, distance to transit, and street design, are used to depict the built environment; moreover, the severe collinearity underlies these feature variables. To solve the multicollinearity among the variables and high-dimensional problem, this study utilizes two different penalization-based regression models, the LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and Elastic Net regression algorithms, to achieve the variable selection and explore the impacts of the built environment on the change of travel demand triggered by the LPR policy. Travel demand changes are assessed by the relative variation in taxi ridership in each traffic analysis zone based on the taxi GPS data. Built environment variables are measured using the transportation network data and the Baidu Map Service points of interest (POI) data. The results show that regions with a higher level of public transportation service and a higher degree of the land mix have a stronger resilience to the vehicle restriction policy. Besides, the contribution rate of public transportation is stable as a whole, while the contribution rate of richness depends on specific types of land use. The conclusions in this study can provide in-depth insights into the influence of the LPR policy and underpin traffic complementary policies to ensure the effectiveness of LPR.