The dual effects of population migration on the achievement of sustainable development goals in Tibet, China

摘要

Abstract China’s urbanization process, premised on the belief that migration contributes to economic growth, has entailed extensive population movement. However, the overall effects of population migration on regional sustainable development goals (SDGs) remain unclear. China’s achievement of SDGs hinges on the sustainable development of Tibet, which is economically less developed and ecologically fragile. We established county-level SDG indicators for Tibet using pixel-level maps and statistical data on diverse socioeconomic and environmental topics: GDP, population density, health, employment, agricultural productivity, ecosystem services, and vegetative cover. Our underlying assumption was that regional differences in economic development and Tibet’s eco-migration policy have induced extensive domestic migration. Moreover, we assumed that migration affects the achievement of SDGs directly and indirectly through its economic impacts. Accordingly, we developed and tested a conceptual framework using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that from 2000 to 2015, there was progress toward achievement of all of the selected SDGs, with Tibet achieving an average increased score of 11.0. The hypothesized SEM explained the total SDG score and those of SDGs 1, 2, 6, 11, and 15. Population migration accounted for 16% of the variation in SDG scores. Migration had direct negative impacts and indirect positive impacts on the total SDG score via its effect on economic development. Specifically, population migration had stronger positive effect on out-migration counties than on in-migration counties, with higher SDG scores for the former associated with public services and ecological systems. To reverse the negative impacts of migration on certain in-migration counties, we recommend pursuit of high-quality urbanization, entailing the provision of more educational and medical facilities, livelihood resources, and off-farm jobs for migrant settlers. Promoting grass-based animal husbandry in rural areas could increase rural employment and ameliorate the side effects of migration on the SDGs.