RESEARCH ON RISK ASSESSMENT OF HIGHWAY FLOOD DISASTER

摘要

Highway flood disaster refers to a series of engineering damage phenomena and processes in plain or mountainous areas under the comprehensive effect of natural flood disaster and human intervention activities. Highway flood disaster is an important factor affecting the development of traffic and social economy. The plain highway in a certain area is selected in this paper, the factors such as precipitation, terrain and water system that may cause highway flood disaster are studied. The risk assessment indexes of highway flood disaster is established, and the interaction of each assessment index to the risk degree of highway flood disaster is innovatively analyzed using response surface model. The results showed that days greater than 25 mm annual precipitation, precipitation and regional drainage density have significant differences on the risk degree of highway flood disaster, and the prediction models have significant differences (P<0.01), which can provide a theoretical basis for the prediction and prevention of highway flood disaster. In addition, highway flood disaster can be reduced by reducing the number of days greater than 25 mm annual precipitation, reducing annual precipitation, and controlling regional drainage density, which are found. After the optimization of response surface model, when the days greater than 25mm annual precipitation are 3, the annual precipitation is 300 mm, the highway terrain slope is 15° and the regional drainage density is 1004.58 m/km2, the risk degree of highway flood disaster can be controlled to a low risk state (23.82).