Policy assessment for electromobility promotion in Colombia: A system dynamics approach

摘要

Governments consider electric vehicle (EV) adoption as one of the strategies for reducing the negative impacts of the transport sector. However, the assessments that are usually conducted do not consider the impact that this transition may have on other aspects of the transport and energy sectors. This paper presents a system dynamics model to evaluate the effects that policies associated with EV adoption have on sustainability indicators, as well as on the vehicle and energy supply chains in Colombia. The main findings show that the proposed fiscal measures do not achieve massification in the medium term and that the capacity of the energy system may be a limiting factor in the adoption process. Systemic policy evaluation identifies problems that may emerge in their implementation, such as limiting factors and that policy efforts are not leverage points. It would, therefore, allow for better strategies to be formulated.