Floods and Exports: An Empirical Study on Natural DisasterShocks in Southeast Asia

摘要

This study analyzes the effects of climate-related disasters on international trade inSoutheast Asia. We use monthly trade data to examine the relationship between disastershocks and bilateral export flows. The empirical analysis shows that natural disasters havea significant negative effect on exports. The estimation results suggest that floods cause animmediate decrease in exports by 3–5% of monthly mean export values. In addition, theeffect persists in the post-disaster period, with floods causing annual export losses of 2% ofaverage export values. We further investigate the impact of disasters by product group, andshow that disasters are negatively associated with the exports of agricultural and manufacturingproducts. The findings suggest that extreme weather events have severe repercussionson Southeast Asia, where exports play an important role in economic development.