Reanalysis of the Ionospheric Total Electron Content Anomalies Around the 2011 Tohoku-Oki and 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes: Lack of a Clear Precursor of Large Earthquakes

摘要

We investigate the veracity of the reports by Iwata and Umeno (2016, https://doi. org/10.1002/2016ja023036) and Iwata and Umeno (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ja023921), both of which claimed that the observed perturbations in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based ionospheric total electron content (TEC) could serve as a "precursor" of large earthquakes based on correlation analysis. Iwata and Umeno (2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ja023036) defined a spatial correlation of residuals between the observed and predicted TEC time series. They reported that the correlation value is significantly larger before large earthquakes than those observed during nonearthquake periods. Iwata and Umeno (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ja023921), who applied the same method to other large earthquake, claimed that the preseismic ionospheric disturbances can be distinguished from other non-earthquake phenomena based on the small percentage of area where the correlation value exceeds the criterion. They also claimed that the low propagation velocity of the correlation peaks is also a preseismic characteristic. Here we tested their claims using a larger data set. As a result, these three characteristics they claimed to have captured as evidence of earthquake precursors are not significant being frequently observed during normal (nonearthquake) days. In addition to that, the criteria of Iwata and Umeno (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ja023921) cannot be applied to the large earthquake discussed by Iwata and Umeno (2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ja023036), and vice versa. Therefore, we can find no basis for claiming that they detected precursors to the earthquakes. The calculation procedure of the correlation function shows that the value is more of an indicator that amplifies small variations synchronized between nearby stations, like medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances rather than earthquake precursors.