CIS PIG IRON REVIVAL UNDER PRESSURE

摘要

Export prices out of CIS (Russia and Ukraine) countries have been quite volatile during the past month, partly reflecting the swing in European scrap price developments as sentiment improved through the month.Compared to one month ago, Baltic (Russian) Sea prices have fallen as expected but Black Sea (primarily Ukrainian) prices have revived, contrary to our expectations. After falling initially, towards the end of June, pig iron assessments have increased between $5-io/tonneto an average of $328/ tonne FOB at the time of writing, with one more assessment to be made for the Metal Bulletin (MB)'sJuly average to be complete. The recovery may have been against our expectations and inspired by concerns, especially in Eu rope, thatsupplies were tightening amid a further revival inTurkish purchasing. That being said, prices have in fact dipped since mid July reflectingthefact that the recovery is fragile and in our still-bearish opinion, likely to lead to a downturn.