S&P Global Ratings: Is China ‘Overinvested’? Provincial data suggests a nuanced view

摘要

A widely held view of the Chinese economyis that it is overinvested. The logic is asfollows. China’s manufacturing and exportledgrowth model requires that a largepercentage of GDP be invested rather thanconsumed. The official desire to makethis model self-funded and not rely onforeign savings (capital inflows) meansthat domestic savings must be sufficientlyhigh or, equivalently, consumption must besufficiently contained. This, in turn requiresa heavy role for the state, rather than themarket, in ensuring sufficiently high savings.