S&P Global Platts China Alumina Survey: Prices face downward pressure in 2020

摘要

China's alumina market participants expect prices to fall in 2020 due to overcapacity at home and abroad and import volumes to continue rising as seaborne prices remain lower than domestic levels, the Alumina Outlook Survey by S&P Global Platts has found. Close to 67% of participants saw alumina imports rising this year in anticipation of seaborne prices remaining lower than Chinese domestic prices. No one surveyed expected alumina imports would fall in 2020. Some 57% of participants expected alumina prices to average Yuan 2,400-2,800/ mt in 2020. Breaking down the numbers further, 64% thought the upper end of alumina prices would be Yuan 2,800/mt and 50% saw the lower end at Yuan 2,400/mt. Others thought prices would be Yuan 200- 300/mt lower than these levels, with some noting it depended on whether there were any alumina production cuts in the year due to environmental curbs