Blending Offers Relief on Global Bunker Rule

摘要

It has been a year since the unveiling of a rule guiding global shipping fuels that threatens the viabil- ity of global fuel oil markets and promises a spike in global gasoil demand. In many ways, little has changed. Both refiners and shippers have made little effort to meet the 2020 deadline set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to slash global bunker fuel sulfur limits from the cur- rent 3.5% to 0.5%. But in a few important ways, things have changed. There is a greater apprecia- tion by the oil industry of the ability of blending to ease a forecasted spike in demand for marine gasoil (MGO), while there is less pessimism about how much demand for high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) might fall, according to consultancy Energy Aspects. To be sure, global HSFO demand will plunge due to the new IMO rule; consultancies FGE and Energy Aspects anticipate demand will slide 2 million-2.3 mil- lion barrels per day by 2020, a significant decrease from the roughly 3 million b/d consumed currently (PIW Jun.20’16). But FGE is forecasting that global gasoil demand is only likely to rise by around 1.4 million b/d at the turn of the decade, as refineries produce slightly more than 1 million b/d of 0.5% blended fuel oil that year. With blending, less HSFO is left stranded, while less gasoil is needed to meet bunker demand. Energy Aspects estimates that 3.5% HSFO would generally make up around 15% of a 0.5% bunker blend.