Myopic decision making in energy system decarbonisation pathways. A UK case study

摘要

Abstract With an application on the UK, this paper shows that myopic planning might result in delayed strategic investments and in considerably higher costs for achieving decarbonisation targets compared to estimates done with perfect foresight optimisation energy models. It also suggests that carbon prices obtained from perfect foresight energy models might be under-estimated. The study was performed using a combination of the standard UK Times Model (UKTM), a perfect foresight, bottom-up, technology-rich cost optimisation energy model, and its myopic foresight version: My-UKTM. This also demonstrates that using perfect foresight optimisation models in tandem with their myopic equivalents can provide valuable indications for policy design. Highlights ? Myopic and perfect foresight optimisation models can be used in tandem for policy support. ? Myopic investments in the UK can result in delayed or cancelled strategic investments. ? Carbon prices estimated from perfect foresight models might be under-valued. ? Last mile decarbonisation in the UK energy system can be very costly with myopic planning. ? Myopic planning combined with slow technologies diffusion may result in the non-achievement of UK's climate targets. ]]>