South America power integration, Bolivian electricity export potential and bargaining power: An OSeMOSYS SAMBA approach

摘要

Abstract Bolivia has plenty of energy resources that can supply not only its own electricity demand but has also the potential to export surplus production to its neighbors in South America. This study presents a comparative analysis of the electricity export potential of Bolivia, considering modeling results carried out by the Bolivian government and those from OSeMOSYS SAMBA - South America Model Base. Four scenarios were modelled from different conceptions of strategic large hydropower combinations. The scenarios comparison highlights the cross-border potential trade between Bolivia and neighboring countries, mainly Brazil. Using a Cooperative Games approach, through the calculation of the Shapley value, the bargaining power of Bolivia was identified, reaching its higher value in the scenario where El Bala and Cachuela Esperanza dams are present. The cooperative games approach provides a better understanding of electricity trade opportunities to support policy makers in international negotiations, thus considerably reducing incentives to non-cooperative actions. Highlights ? We model the long-term dynamics of power systems integration in South America. ? Four scenarios simulate the cross-border electricity trade from a Bolivian perspective. ? The Shapley value concept was used within a cooperative game theory approach. ? We assess the Bolivia's theoretical bargaining power on cross-border electricity trade. ? The proposed methodology may support policy makers during international negotiations. ]]>