Propagation probability of domino effect based on analysis of accident chain in storage tank area

摘要

Most of the hazardous materials in chemical storage tanks are flammable and explosive. Once a tank leaks, it would cause a fire or explosion, and subsequent domino accidents, forming catastrophic accident chain. In the present study, 165 domino accidents of storage tank area during 1970 and 2017 were analyzed to establish theoretic models and event tree. Probability distribution of initial accident and four typical accident node escalation models are picked up: fire -> fire, fire -> explosion, explosion -> fire, explosion -> explosion. Propagation probability model of accident chain was constructed, which consists of initial accident probability, accident node escalation probability and target tank failure probability. The efficacy and out-performance of the developed model have been demonstrated via a real-life simple case study.