Land Use Change and Development Modeling Using Logistic Regression

摘要

This study analyzed land use change near Hat Yai international airport, Thailand, from 1991-2009 and modeled land development in order to detect the rate at which each land use type and location was prone to development. Land use data for 1991, 2000 and 2009 were obtained from Thailand Department of Lands. The data structure was improved by digitization where polygonal boundaries of land were converted to gridded sub-plots (cells). Logistic regression technique was utilized in modeling development that emerged. A classification accuracy result was used to measure the accuracy of the model. The result of the study showed development in the North-East increased from 21.8-66.3% and in the South-West increased from 61.3-81.4%. This shows 45% increase in North-East and 20% in South-West. Also, the accuracy of the model in predicting development from 1991-2000 was 87.2 and 81.7% from 2000-2009 indicating a good model. The study concluded there had been immense change in land use in the airport especially the North-East location since 1991-2009. Development had been on the increase throughout the period yet rubber plantation and paddy field and other agricultural land still reigned since they have been a major source of income to the community.