The expansion of wheat thermal suitability of Russia in response to climate change

摘要

The emergence of Russia as a major grain exporter is not only crucial for the world commercial agriculture and food security, but also for the country's economy. Here we examine the past-to-future thermal suitability for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum, L. 1753) cultivation over Russia and compare it with the recent trends of wheat yields and harvested area. The analyses use a multi-model ensemble median of the most updated bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP5 Earth System Models (1950-2099) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Era-Interim dataset (1979-2016).