Weather based Statistical Modelling for Forecasting of Yearly Spot Blotch Severity in different Growth Stages of Wheat

摘要

The Objective of the present study was to develop regression models for forecasting spot blotch se/ susceptible and resistant genotypes of wheat crop under Irrigated timely sown condition (ITS), Ir late sown condition (ILS) and Rainfed timely sown condition (RFTS). CRI, tillering, jointing, flc milking and dough stages of wheat were considered for studying the effect of weather param? yearly spot blotch severity. Yearly disease severity data and weekly weather data during the 1975 to 2012 of North eastern plains zones of India were used for this purpose. On the basis of 2 data, the correlation coefficients between the yearly spot blotch severity and weekly weather par; (Maximum temperature, maximum relative humidity and their joint effects) were calculated for me the quantitative relationship between these variables. These values of correlation coefficients we for developing weighted weather indices of weather parameters. Values of rTm and r were higher and positive in between jointing stage and flowering stage in both the genotypes. Thi RMSE value of MLR models at jointing stage suggested that forecasted value at jointing stage : precise than other stages.