Dynamic nonlinear influence of urbanization on China's electricity consumption: Evidence from dynamic economic growth threshold effect

摘要

On the basis of considering the inertia characteristic of electricity consumption (EC), the nonlinear dynamic threshold effect of urbanization on EC was studied by using dynamic threshold model. The mediating effect of economic growth on the influence of urbanization on EC was studied under heterogeneous samples. The spatial-temporal heterogeneity of the influence of urbanization on EC was investigated. The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, when the threshold variable value crosses the threshold, the promoting effect of population urbanization rate (PUR) on per capita electricity consumption (PEC) and per capita industrial electricity consumption (PIEC) will be significantly weakened, but the promoting effect of PUR on per capita household electricity consumption (PHEC) will be significantly enhanced. Secondly, the positive mediating effect of economic growth on the influence of urbanization on EC is significant. The mediating effect on regions that cross the threshold is also greater than those that do not. Thirdly, the impact of PUR on PEC or PIEC in the eastern region is weaker than that in the central and western regions, while the impact of PUR on PHEC in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.