Transport Sector Marginal Abatement Cost Curves in Computable General Equilibrium Model

摘要

In the last decade, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have emerged a standard tool for climate policy evaluation due to their abilities to prospectively elucidate the character and magnitude of the economic impacts of energy and environmental policies. Furthermore, marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves which represent GHG emissions reduction potentials and costs can be derived from these top-down economic models. However, most studies have never address MAC curves for a specific sector that have a large coverage of countries which are needed for allocation of optimal emission reductions. This paper aims to explicitly describe the meaning and character of MAC curves for transport sector in a CGE context through using the AIM/CGE Model developed by Toshihiko Masui. It found that the MAC curves derived in this study are the inverse of the general equilibrium reduction function for CO_2 emissions. Moreover, the transport sector MAC curves for six regions including USA, EU-15, Japan, China, India, and Brazil, derived from this study are compared to the reduction potentials under 100 USD/tCO_2 in 2020 from a bottom-up study. The results showed that the ranking of the regional reduction potentials in transport sector from this study are almost same with the bottom-up study except the ranks of the EU-15 and China. In addition, the range of the reduction potentials from this study is wider and only the USA has higher potentials than those derived from the bottom-up study.