Estimation of the distribution of the staying number of cooked cocoons in the raw silk reeling machine

摘要

Considering the automatic raw silk reeling machine as a "black box" in which a large number of cooked cocoons are being reeled or prepared for the reeling, and using the queues model with infinitely many servers to describe the dynamic process of thenumber of cooked cocoons staying in the reeling machine, we gave a method to estimate the distribution of the number of cooked cocoons in the "black box" according to the time series information of the numbers of the input and the output cooked cocoons.By computer simulation, we discussed on the errors of the estimated distribution and its applications to the control of reeling process.