In Tables 1 and 2 the supply-demand balance for primary aluminium is analysed. Totals for consumption are taken from Table 3, where consumption is estimated and forecast by assessing the change in consumption of semi-finished aluminium products (rolled products, extrusions, wire rod, castings, etc.) in each country and calculating the impact of this on the consumption of primary aluminium. The levels of production from Table 4 are used and from these is derived a forecast of the implied movement of producers' and terminal market stocks, which are key determinants of short-term prices. The forecasts for the first quarter of 2009 for world consumption, production, identified stock change (IAI producers plus LME) and total identified stocks at the end of the quarter, compared to the estimated actual outturn, were as follows: In our last report (February 2009) we expected that production would fall back from the high levels of late 2008, but that apparent consumption would fall more quickly, causing a large rise in stocks and low prices. In the event, production was as expected, but apparent consumption was higher than expected. Part of this was because of purchases for official stockpiles in China, which probably exceeded 500,000 tonnes in 2009 Q1. As a result the change in stocks was less than expected by about 400,000 tonnes. Prices were nevertheless low, at less than 1400 dollars.
展开▼
