Extreme value statistics for river quality simulations

摘要

Various methods have been proposed to assess intermittent pollution loads and impacts on rivers in urban areas. Although the variables to describe the impact are mainly the same, the standards show significant differences in the assessment of permitted concentration level, duration and return period. The probability of an event is derived using either frequencies of occurrence or predefined extreme value distributions. Both methods have drawbacks. To bypass these, an a posteriori estimation of the statistical distribution of data based on the peak-over-threshold method is proposed. The method is exemplarily demonstrated using a semi-virtual case study.