Monetary policy spillovers and currency crisis in comparative perspective: East Asia before the 1997 crisis and Eastern Europe after tapering

摘要

This paper estimates the possibility of currency crisis in Eastern Europe that can be triggered by monetary policy change in the key currency countries, such as tapering measure. We examine the crisis possibility in the five Eastern European nationsthe Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romaniaby performing a comparative analysis with East Asian countries before the 1997 currency crisis. For the analysis, we estimate how much the exchange rate deviates from the estimated equilibrium exchange rate, as well as the synchronicity of currency value towards some of the key currencies by creating market pressure index. The results can be explained in two ways. First, the market pressure in the Eastern Europe after 2012 is smaller than they were in East Asia before 1997. The crisis possibility especially intensifies when more the exchange rate deviates from the equilibrium value. Second, the monetary policy change in the key currency countries does not greatly affect the crisis possibility in Eastern Europe when their local currencies have the strong synchronisation with euro. Therefore, Eastern European countries show strong synchronicity towards the euro, so the crisis possibility may be alleviated if the Eurozone continues its expansionary monetary policy.