Demographic projections of future pharmaceutical consumption in the Netherlands

摘要

Over the next few decades, many Western European countries will undergo a large demographicntransformation introduced by the retirement of the ‘‘baby boomers’’ and the possibility of strikingnincreases in longevity. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of a growing and ageingnDutch population on the future consumption of pharmaceuticals, so as to be able to anticipatenthe potential future emissions of these pharmaceuticals and their residues to surface waters.nA total of 354 prescribed pharmaceuticals from 40 therapeutic groups was selected for study.nThese constitute 1.251 metric tonnes (98%) of the total Dutch consumption of prescribednpharmaceuticals in 2007. Calculations based on a fixed consumption rate (2007) predict thatndemographic developments can be expected to push consumption up to 1.504 metric tonnes inn2020 (þ17%) and 1.851 metric tonnes by 2050 (þ37%). Therapeutic groups showing the largestnincrease are related to illnesses associated with old age. The only groups showing a decrease arenthe antivirals and drugs for addiction treatments as well as ethinylestradiol, an active compoundnin contraceptives.