Using Simulation to Forecast Resilience in Surfside, Florida

摘要

COLLINS AND HARDING AVENUES in Surfside, FL, northsoutharterial roads bringing commuting workers up anddown the Miami-area Atlantic coast, pulse with activityeach morning. Residents of the 5,800-person communityjoin in the fray, turning north onto Collins Avenue orsouth onto Harding and driving past single-family homesto the west and condominiums and hotels to the east.The Atlantic-facing condos sit atop a limestone coastalridge that is part natural, part imported sand fromCentral Florida. The original intent of the imported sandwas to protect the coastal development from hurricanestorm surge, but with projections of potentially six feet ofsea level rise by 2100, the Town of Surfside is wonderingif elevation could be an eventual answer. Would aSurfside 4-6 feet higher than its current elevation beprepared for the 22nd century? This is one of the manyquestions the Town intends to assess as it plans for aresilient future.