End-of-life passenger vehicles recycling decision system in China based on dynamic material flow analysis and life cycle assessment

摘要

China's automobile industry is developing rapidly, but the recycling rate of end-of-life vehicles has been low. In 2018, the recovery rate of end-of-life passenger vehicles was less than 18% of the scrapped amount. Dynamic material flow analysis can predict the amount of end-of-life passenger cars in China in the future, and analyze the flow of materials in recycling system. Life cycle assessment can be used to quantify greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this paper integrates these two methods into the model construction of recycling decision system. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis of the important factors affecting the efficiency of the recovery system is carried out. Finally, the main recovery indexes of the system are predicted under three scenarios: low-speed, medium speed and high-speed development, which are set based on scrap volume, standard recovery rate, proportion of assembly into remanufacturing and carbon tax price. The research results show that in 2018, 656.9 kg/vehicle of iron, 150.2 kg/vehicle of aluminum and 7.9 kg/vehicle of copper are recovered from end-of-life passenger car in China, and the carbon emission during the recovery process is 651.1 kg of CO_2eq/vehicle, with a total emission reduction of 3816.1 kgCO_2eq/vehicle compared with the original production, and the economic benefit is about 5055.5 yuan/vehicle. The scenario prediction results show that by 2050, from the low-speed development scenario to the high-speed development scenario, the total amount of iron, aluminum and copper recovered rise from 3.96 million tons, 915 thousand tons and 46 thousand tons to 697 thousand tons, 1.61 million tons and 80 thousand tons respectively throughout the year. The carbon emission in the recovery process rise from 4.98 thousand tons to 9.32 million tons. Compared with the original production, the carbon emission reduction increases from 2.21 million tons to 38.3 million tons, the economic benefit increases from 58.9 billion yuan to 118.8 billion yuan, and the comprehensive benefit increases from 57 billion yuan to 111.6 billion yuan.