A long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from September 2010 to August 2015 and the reliability of previous forecasts, as well as their applications

摘要

We describe results from the ongoing 2008-2010 work on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We provide a forecast for the next 5 years, September 2010 to August 2015, specified for all segments of the earthquake-generating Kuril-Kamchatka arc zone. For 20 segments we predict the phases of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of small earthquakes (A^sub 10^), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes to be expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum possible magnitudes, and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. It is shown that the forecast given for the previous 5 years, from September 2005 to September 2010, was found to be accurate. We report the measures that were taken for seismic safety and retrofitting based on these forecasts.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] Show less