Changes in novice motorcyclist safety in Hong Kong after the probationary driving license scheme

摘要

A probationary driving license scheme (PDLS) was implemented in Hong Kong in 2000 to enable novice motorcyclists to gain driving experience in low-risk driving situations. The purpose of this study is to examine whether and how novice motorcyclist safety has changed after the implementation of the PDLS and compare the risk of novice motorcyclists in different phases of the probationary period. Results obtained using both multiple regressions and the wavelet coherence method suggest that the PDLS has a positive relationship with novice motorcyclist safety. According to the results of the multiple regression models, PDLS has a statistically significant negative association with traffic crashes involving novice motorcyclists, as well as serious and fatal crashes involving novice motorcyclists at the .05 level, after controlling the number of novice motorcyclists and all other drivers (including other motorcyclists and private car drivers). In addition, the wavelet method results indicate that novice motorcyclists involved in traffic crashes had two main regions of high and significant coherence (in 1.6-2.0- or 3.0-4.2-year periodic bands) from 1995 to 2001, but no peak was observed afterward. The results suggest that the PDLS has been associated with consistently declining trends of crashes involving novice motorcyclists since 2001 (after a year-long transitional period following the launch of the scheme in October 2000).