State-dependent pricing for real-time freeway management: Anticipatory versus reactive strategies

摘要

This paper proposes the notion of anticipatory (dynamic) pricing, and investigates the advantages of using predicted traffic conditions over the use of prevailing and/or historical conditions in setting time-varying link tolls along a freeway corridor to maintain target level of service (LOS) and avoid traffic breakdown on toll links. This is accomplished through an anticipatory toll generator intended to operate in tandem with a real-time traffic estimation and prediction system. Using a calibrated network model of the Baltimore - Washington, DC corridor as test bed, simulation experiments are performed to compare the proposed anticipatory pricing strategies to reactive as well as static pricing schemes. The results indicate that setting prices on the basis of predicted conditions can make a substantial difference in terms of achieving the objectives of pricing in managed-lane situations.