Fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method for technology selection for emissions reduction from shipping under uncertainties

摘要

This paper describes a methodology for the application of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) on the technology selection for emissions reduction from shipping under uncertainties and incomplete information. Nine criteria in four aspects, including technological (maturity), economic (capital cost and operation cost), environmental (effects of SOx, NOx, GHG, and PM reduction), and social-political aspects (government support and social acceptability), were used for the sustainability assessment. The study aims at developing the methodology for technology selection for emissions reduction from shipping by combining Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and VIKOR. Fuzzy AHP was used to determine the weights of the evaluation criteria and the relative performance of the alternatives with respect to each evaluation criterion, and VIKOR was used to prioritize the alternative technologies. The two methods of VIKOR and the traditional AHP were combined to validate the proposed methodology. Three alternative technologies of low sulphur fuel, scrubber and LNG were studied using the proposed model, and the results indicate that the proposed methodology is capable of assisting the decision-makers to select the most sustainable technology for emissions reduction from shipping under uncertainties and incomplete information. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.