Travel pattern transitions: Applying latent transition analysis within the mobility biographies framework

摘要

This paper applies the relatively new method of latent transition analysis within the mobility biographies framework to assess how life events influence changes in travel behaviour. Using transition analysis, it is assessed how people switch between different travel patterns over time. Data from the first three waves of the Netherlands Mobility Panel (MPN) are used to reveal different travel patterns and analyse transitions between these patterns over time. Six different meaningful travel patterns are revealed. Four exogenous variables and six life events within the household, employment and residential biography are included to assess their effects on people's transitions between the travel patterns over time. For all life events significant effects are found, indicating that there might indeed be 'windows of opportunity' to change travel behaviour when a life event occurs. The results show that, on average, people who only use a single mode are less likely to change their travel pattern compared to multimodal travellers. In addition, the effects of life events and exogenous variables depend on the initial travel pattern. In general, single-mode travellers are less affected by life events than multimodal travellers. This indicates that it is important to include past travel behaviour within mobility biographies studies.