Evaluating the success of cycle networks and predicting future use

摘要

A study was undertaken which attempted to identify the relative importance of different factors in the decision to undertake the journey to work by cycle. The effectiveness of existing cycle networks was assessed using spatial analysis mapping procedures and a computer- based model produced to predict the use of future cycle trail and lane proposals. The journey prediction model can predict approximately 25% of all journeys from a location exactly and can be used to predict more than one journey and to look at where journeys are made from a single loction to multiple end points. The modelling facility can therefore be used to look at cycling patterns for a proposed housing estate or new development to identify routes in the network that may become more integrated and would be used by more cyclists.