Forecasting Threats and Opportunities for Foreign Innovators in China's Strategic Emerging Industries: A Policy-Based Analysis

摘要

This article reviews over 50 recent Chinese policies designated to develop China's "strategic emerging industries" (SEIs), and conducts interviews with foreign firms and Chinese government officials to identify the most significant threats and opportunities for foreign innovators in these industries. Threats identified include initiatives to stimulate the market primarily in the interest of Chinese firms, cultivate "indigenous" intellectual property (IP) rights, and create national champions in specific SEIs. Opportunities include using certain strategies to tap into monetary stimuli for SEIs and supporting industries, benefits from further regionalization and optimization of industrial bases, direct benefits and spillovers from improved IP protection and management, and potential opportunities from increased mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by Chinese firms. These findings should be con-textualized with the knowledge that not all aspects of the SEIs' initiative are "new," current Chinese industrial policy does not only target seven SEIs, and SEI policies may not all work exactly as intended.