Does A1 Qaeda Have a Future?

摘要

How much of a threat do A1 Qaeda and its affiliates pose to the United States, Canada, and other Western countries today? Some analysts fear Al Qaeda is again on the march.1 The group that perpetrated the deadliest terrorist attack in history has survived a ferocious US counterterrorism response—one of the biggest US counterterrorism successes in recent years—that forced the Islamic State's caliphate underground and subjugated its last territory in Syria in 2019. Al Qaeda could fill the void, however, and make a comeback. Its affiliates, too, pose a potential risk of swelling the ranks of those loyal to Al Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri, giving the organization greater reach. In addition, the United States is considering retreating from the Middle East, which could give Al Qaeda and its affiliates more opportunities in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, and other countries where its activities have been opposed by US forces and US-backed governments. A recent UN report also warned about the movement's growing presence in South Asia and Africa.~2