Advice for a Dark Age: Managing Great Power Competition

摘要

Whether we like it or not, the world has entered an era of multipolar struggle. A mix of structural pressures and self-fulfilling choices by key players have brought about this dangerous state of affairs. Today, the United States, Russia and China, as well as designated "rogue" regimes Iran and North Korea, are entering a state of protracted and intensifying security competition. The ever-evolving lesser menace of Islamist terrorism will persist, too, as a wild card that could also provoke exertions of power. In the medium term, this shift is probably irreversible. Washington's experience of unipolar dominance, and decades of unrivalled hegemony, leave it ill-prepared to deal with this new reality. Given the high stakes, some counsel is due. To prevail in these conditions, it will need intellectual resources other than nostalgic appeals to a lost unipolar order.