WORLD ECONOMY AND TRADE TRENDS

摘要

France cast serious doubt of late on the prospects of an EU free trade deal with the United States, adding to opposition within Germany just two months after their countries' leaders reaffirmed support for an accord. Washington and Brussels are officially committed to sealing the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) before US President Barack Obama leaves office in January, but their chances of doing so are being eroded by approaching elections and Britain's vote in June to leave the European Union. "Everything is moving. In this situation it's just not going to happen," said Peter van Ham, senior research fellow at Dutch think tank Clingendael and author of a paper recently called "TTIP is dead, long live transatlantic trade". French trade minister Matthias Fekl said he would request a halt to TTIP talks at EU trade ministers' meeting in Bratislava after German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel declared recently that talks were "de facto dead". Observers say both are responding to public mistrust of a deal that critics say would lower environmental and food standards and allow foreign multinationals to challenge government policies. Stop TTTP campaigns have been particularly vocal in Germany and Austria, which supporters of TTP say are among the countries most likely to benefit from increased US trade. German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, of Gabriel's Social Democratic Party (SPD), urged diplomats and business chiefs to counter anti-globalization sentiments that are fuelling opposition to free trade deals. Ahead of elections in France and Germany next year, politicians are keenly aware that TTIP is not a vote winner.The Bertelsmann Foundation poll showed only 17% of Germans saw TTIP as a good thing in April, down from 55% two years earlier. "There may be an economic rationale, but everyone is scrapping for votes and you lose votes if you support TTIP," Van Ham said, adding that any credit from potential free trade gains would be two to three years away. Supporters say TTIP could boost each economy by $100 billion, creating jobs at a time of economic uncertainty as growth and consumption slow in China and emerging markets. EU leaders backed TTIP talks at a summit in June. Three years of negotiations have failed to resolve multiple differences, however, including over public procurement and rules to protect foods from particular regions, such as Parma ham, which the EU wants, and greater access to services and for its agricultural products, as demanded by the United States.