From societal fragility to sustainable robustness: Some tentative technology trajectories

摘要

Centralization of production has allowed great increases to efficiency, and specialization has allowed advances that would otherwise be almost impossible. But centralized production leads to long supply lines, and specialization causes decreased accessibility of alternatives; together these increase the consumers' vulnerability to disruption of access to essential goods and services. Assessing these vulnerabilities and making at least preliminary proposals for amelioration, is a topic of this paper. Initially, the functional needs of individuals are reviewed and classified. The paper then reviews and attempts to quantify the vulnerabilities associated with present approaches to meeting those needs. Having identified both specific vulnerabilities, and common factors associated with vulnerability, the paper then considers some general principles for increasing technological and social robustness. With vulnerabilities and indicative principles for improved robustness identified, some coarse but illustrative technology trajectories are proposed. The paper covers a broad scope in limited detail: it is presented in the hope that real advance towards a more robust and decentralized sophistication can be encouraged.