Competition in a technological niche:the cars of the future

摘要

The notion of 'niche' has proved to be useful to account for the emergence of radical innovations. Most studies, however, deal with the development of single emerging technologies. In this paper we address the competition between multiple niche technologies. Within the niche of the 'car of the future' two options compete: the battery-electric and the hydrogen car. While both are shielded from regular market forces, they have to compete in terms of R&D funding, supportive regulation and infrastructure build-up. In our case study we trace the competition in terms of design rules and expectations and show how attention for both options has alternated in three phases, which follow the high hopes and subsequent disappointments of the different component technologies. Whereas there is room for simultaneously developed, multiple options at the local level, at the global level attention and expectations seem much more focused on either the one or the other.