Four scenarios for nanotechnologies in the UK, 2011-2020

摘要

The future social value of nanoscale science and technology (NST) has been repeatedly represented as revolutionary. However, government and industry support for the commercialisation of NST has to confront four key areas of uncertainty: concerning potential hazards associated with applications, commercial viability, public acceptance and evolving regulation. Academic and policy responses have to date largely emphasised the need for adaptive and anticipatory regulation, yet research which evaluates the prospects of success in implementing such measures has so far been lacking. This paper contributes to remedying this lack by examining difficulties and opportunities which may arise around this regulatory agenda in the UK, with the aid of a 'policy Delphi' exercise undertaken with a multi-stakeholder panel. It summarises four scenarios to aid policy-makers and technology strategists in the UK and internationally in thinking through how the future of NST innovation may be affected by factors associated with the aforementioned areas of uncertainty.