China's carbon emissions abatement under industrial restructuring by investment restriction

摘要

This study applied CIECIA, a climate-economy integrated assessment model, to study the carbon reductions and the economic impacts under industrial restructuring realized by capital investment restriction policies in China. The carbon reductions and economic effects of the policy mix combining investment restrictions with low carbon technology progress measures were also assessed. The results show that investment restriction policies for energy-intensive industries in China effectively accelerate industrial restructuring and have significant carbon reduction effects. However, those restrictions hurt China’s economy, causing investment outflow that benefits other countries. Low carbon technology progress realized by investing revenues from investment restrictions in R&D and the sharing of advanced technologies between countries improves the carbon reduction potential of China, but it is difficult to obtain significant reduction in a short time period. Despite this finding, technology progress measures compensate for economic losses and therefore have great significance to carbon governance.