Storm surge risk assessment method for a coastal county in China: case study of Jinshan District, Shanghai

摘要

Storm surges, which may cause considerable casualties and economic losses, are among the most serious natural disasters that threaten the coastal areas of China. Storm surge disaster risk assessment can reflect the expected losses and severity of future storm surge impacts in coastal areas and thus provides important decision support for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the Jinshan District in Shanghai was chosen as a case study area for establishing a high-precision storm surge numerical model. Based on typical historical storm surge disaster processes, key parameters were set up for a typhoon-induced probable maximum storm surge in Jinshan District. The inundation range and water depth distribution of such a typhoon-induced storm surge in Jinshan District were calculated, and the hazard level was classified. Based on land-use types and the distribution of important coastal disaster exposure, the vulnerability level of Jinshan District to storm surge disasters was evaluated. In light of the hazard and vulnerability levels to storm surge disasters, we assessed the risk-level distribution of such disasters in Jinshan District. The results show that the overall risk of storm surge disasters was high in this district. Most coastal areas of Shihua sub-district and Shanyang Town and some areas of Fengjing, Zhujing, and Tinglin Towns in Jinshan District were Level I storm disaster risk areas. The obtained results could serve as a basis for developing a methodology aimed at storm surge disaster risk assessment in coastal areas.