Spatial and temporal variation of extreme precipitation indices in the Yangtze River basin, China

摘要

Regional characteristics of extreme precipitation indices (EPI) of precipitation magnitude, intensity and persistence were analyzed based on a daily rainfall dataset of 135 stations during the period of 1961-2010 in the Yangtze River basin, China. The spatial distribution of temporal trends of the selected indices was regionally mapped and investigated by using non-parametric test method. Future projections of EPI changes derived from the output of general circulation model (HadCM3) under the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were downscaled and analyzed. The results show that: (a) there is not a general significant increasing or decreasing trend in EPI for the Yangtze River basin based on historical recorded data;(b) the automated statistical downscaling method-based precipitation captures some spatial distribution of the EPI and the bias correction can improve the simulation results; (c) a mixed pattern of positive and negative changes is observed in most of the nine indices under both scenarios in the first half of twenty-first century, and they increase continuously in the second half of twenty-first century; and (d) the concurrent increase in the heavy rain and drought indices indicates the possibility of the sudden change from drought to water logging in the lower region of Yangtze River basin.