An improved method for integrated water security assessment in the Yellow River basin, China

摘要

Water is a major limiting factor of human survival and social economic development. Water security is also important for the ecological system. In this paper, the water security assessment index system of the Yellow River basin was developed based on three subsystems: the water resources subsystem, the water environment subsystem and the social economic subsystem. The integrated assessment of water security was developed based on the combination of set pair analysis (SPA) and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) as well as technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), gray relational analysis (GRA), vague sets (VS) and matter element (ME) models. First, fuzzy cluster analysis method was used to check the consistency of all the models before and after implementing the integrated assessment. Secondly, the ranking values of four single assessment models (i.e., TOPSIS, GRA, VS and ME models) were analyzed by SPA method to get the consistency connection degree. Then FAHP was constructed to describe the relative importance of the four different single models when determining the weight coefficient in the integrated assessment model. And lastly, the integrated assessment model of water security was developed based on the ranking values and weight coefficients of the selected single assessment models. The conclusion of the developed integrated assessment model which was applied in the Yellow River basin showed that Sichuan province was at security level; Henan, Shandong, Qinghai and Shaanxi provinces were at the threshold security level; Shanxi, Gansu and Inner Mongolia provinces were at the relative insecurity level; Ningxia province was water no secure. The integrated assessment results showed that the improved integrated model presented in this paper had relatively better performance than single assessment models. The intention of this paper was to provide an integrated assessment model, propose potential countermeasures, and achieve sustainable water utilization in the Yellow River basin.