日本におけるがん罹患率の動向（1975-2005）

摘要

地域がん登録全国推計値のデータに基づき，Joinpoint回帰（折れ線回帰）により1975年～2005年まで日本の全がん及び部位別がんの年齢調整罹患率の動向を解析した．31年間のがん年齢調整罹患率のトレンドを解析した結果では，全がんにおいて，近年男女ともに増加していた（男性2000-2005年平均年変化率：1．7％；女性1999-2005年平均年変化率：2．8％）．部位別では，近年増加を示した部位は男女の肺，悪性リンパ腫，男性の膀胱，女性の膵臓，乳房，子宮，卵巣，腎などであった．一方，減少を示した部位は男女の肝臓，胆嚢?胆管，男性の大腸，女性の胃であり，横ばいであった部位は男女の食道，白血病，男性の胃，膵臓，前立腺，腎など，女性の大腸，膀胱であった．今後，がん罹患率を減らすには，禁煙や食生活の改善のような第一次予防，検診により早期発見を含む効率的ながん対策の実施は必須であり，特に胃，肺，前立腺，乳房，子宮，大腸などの雁思率が高い，あるいは増加傾向である部位に対する重点的な対策が必要である．%A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the long-term trend regarding the cancer incidence rates based on the estimates as determined based on the information obtained from the Research Group for Population-based Cancer Registration in Japan. The overall cancer incidence rates increased in the most recent time period for both men (1.7% per year from 2000 to 2005) and women (2.8% per year from 1999 to 2005). An increasing trend was also confirmed for both lung and lymphoma cancer in both sexes, bladder cancer in men and pancreas, breast, uterus, ovary and kidney cancer in women during the most recent time period. On the other hand, cancers of the liver and gallbladder among both sexes, the large intestine in men and the stomach in women showed a decreasing trend, while cancers of the esophagus and leukemia for both sexes, stomach, pancreas, prostate and kidney in men, and colorectal cancer and bladder cancer in women leveled off during the most recent time period. An effective cancer control program, including primary prevention, such as the cessation of smoking and diet modifications, and early detection by the performance of mass screening, is therefore expected to reduce the cancer incidence rates, particularly for cancer sites that show either high incidence rates or increasing trends.