Probability-based PGA estimations using the double-lognormal distribution: Including site-specific seismic hazard analysis for four sites in Taiwan

摘要

This study develops a probabilistic approach for examining site-specific seismic hazards using data from 438 M_w ≥ 5.5 earthquakes and attenuation relationships local to the region around Taiwan. These are combined to generate semi-observed peak ground accelerations, in a form which can be modeled by a double-lognormal distribution. This model, which satisfies statistical goodness-of-fit, provides the relationship between the exceedance probability and a given ground motion level. The study includes site-specific seismic hazard analysis for four nuclear power plant sites in Taiwan. The results show that the seismic hazards at the four sites are not the same. While no seismic hazard analysis is without challenge, a troublesome trend appears that many applications of decision making are being influenced by the complexity of the calculation, instead of how well the fundamentals of the analysis are understood and can be verified. The study provides an analysis which is not overly complicated, is in good agreement with an empirical control, and offers transparency, traceability, and verifiability.