Event and decadal-scale modeling of barrier island restoration designs for decision support

摘要

An interdisciplinary project team was convened to develop a modeling framework that simulates the potential impacts of storms and sea level-rise to habitat availability at Breton Island, Louisiana, for existing conditions and potential future restoration designs. The model framework was iteratively developed through evaluation of model results at multiple checkpoints. A methodology was developed for characterizing regional wave and water levels, and the numerical model XBeach was used to simulate the potential impacts from a wide range of storm events. Simulations quantified the potential for erosion, overwash, and inundation of the pre- and post-restoration beach and dune system and were used as a preliminary screening of restoration designs. The model framework also incorporated a computationally efficient method to evaluate the impacts of storms, long-term shoreline changes, and relative sea level rise over a 15-year time period, in order to evaluate the effect of the preferred restoration alternative on habitat distribution. Results directly informed engineering design decisions and expedited later project stages including the construction permitting process.